The source matters
| Source | Reported shiny chance |
|---|---|
| Gacha, when a shiny form exists | 1 in 100 |
| Wild encounter | 1 in 4,096 |
Check availability before setting a target
The reference release lists shiny forms for 958 of the 966 partners. A missing shiny sprite is an availability issue, not evidence that you need to roll longer. Shiny collection and rarity pity are different mechanics, so track them separately.
Rare does not mean overdue
For independent rolls with a 1% chance, 100 attempts give about a 63.4% chance of at least one success: 1 − 0.99¹⁰⁰. A run of misses is possible. Use a collection checklist and a fixed ticket budget so a cosmetic goal does not derail the partner progression you planned.